Scenarios And Statistics

Information on the HIV/Aids pandemic is published here including the Department of Health 2006 Prevalance Survey, Metropolitan’s Live the Future project which attempts to build a vision of the future with its scenario planning model for HIV/Aids interventions and statistics from the Acturial Society.

SA National HIV Prevalence,Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey, 2008

June 2009

This survey, conducted from June 2008 to March 2009, is the third in a series of national population-based surveys conducted for surveillance of the HIV epidemic in South Africa. The previous two surveys were conducted in 2002 and 2005. The present report allows for an understanding of the progress and potential impact of the HIV & AIDS and STI Strategic Plan for South Africa (NSP) 2007–2011 (DOH 2007) close to the mid-point of its implementation.

Click here to read more and access the report:

Statistics South Africa: Mortality and Causes of death statistics

June 2007

According to the Mortality and Causes of death statistics released by Statistics South Africa, more than 590 00 deaths were recorded in 2005 across South Africa. This is a 3, 3% increase compared to 2004. The first three leading underlying natural causes of death in 2005 were tuberculosis, influenza and pneumonia and intestinal infectious diseases. KwaZulu-Natal registered the highest number of deaths at 23, 4%. It is followed by Gauteng (18, 2%) and the lowest is Northern Cape (2, 0). The overall number of deaths shows a continuous increase from 1997 to 2005

The ten leading underlying natural causes of death for 2005 were the same as those observed for 2004. Among the ten leading causes of death, the diseases that showed higher increases in the number of deaths between 2004 and 2005 were human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease and diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Mellitus was the sixth leading cause of natural death while HIV disease was the tenth.

A full report is available on the website: Enquiries: Trevor Oosterwyk: 082 9089104

Markinor and BMR – Fusing HIV/AIDS risk segmentation and demographic modelling: a novel way of looking at the business impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa

June 2007

There is currently a variety of survey and modelling results available that provide HIV prevalence estimates for South Africa. These studies and models appear to be somewhat flawed when subjected to closer scrutiny, i.e. making use of saliva only or female only samples to determine prevalence rates. There is thus an urgent need to develop a reliable estimation model based on empirical evidence.

In the joint AIDS research conducted by Markinor and the BMR, two competencies were integrated, namely KAPB data collected in annual omnibus studies from 2002 onwards and the use of the Spectrum model to estimate HIV prevalence rates among specific sub-groups in South Africa. It appears from the results of this study that HIV prevalence rates among the skilled, the employed and the affluent are higher than generally expected and are also increasing more rapidly than expected.

Click here to access their paper on the SAMRA website:

Click on headline to view the Markinor article on their website: HIV/Aids: high-risk behaviour on the increase

National HIV and syphilis Prevalence Survey South Africa 2006

National Department of Health (South Africa 2007)

The 2006 antenatal survey was conducted to estimate the prevalence of HIV infection the antenatal survey was conducted in all nine provinces using the standard unlinked anonymous methodology (WHO/UNAIDS).

To enhance the sensitivity of the estimates and to provide greater robustness the HIV sample size was expanded in 2006 to provide (for the first time) prevalence estimates for
each district in the country in addition to the national and provincial rates. A total of 33033 women participated from 1415 health facilities (in comparison to 16510 participants in 2005).

The main findings of this survey are as follows;

1. HIV national HIV prevalence amongst women in the survey stands at 29.1%.This is compared to 30.2% in 2005.
2. The 2006 estimate represents a statistically significant reduction on HIV prevalence between 2005 and 2006.
3. The HIV prevalence rates have been stable (not increasing nor decreasing for several years, this is the first evidence of a decline in the SA epidemic).
4. HIV prevalence in the <20 year olds is now at 13.7% in comparison to an estimated rate of 15.9% in 2005. This is a statistically significant decline.
5. The decline in the <20 year age group particularly implies a reduction in new infections (incidence) in the population.
6. Similarly HIV prevalence in the 20-24year age group stands at 28.0% in comparison to 30.6% in the previous year. Again this represents a significant decline.
7. HIV prevalence in older age groups (30 – 34, 35 – 39. 40+) is a concern as it remains at similar levels with a tendency towards an increase. These increases are however not statistically significant.

Click here to view the Survey on the DoH website:

Related articles:

Latest survey records possible HIV decline

Actuarial Society Biennial report on the state of the SA HIV/AIDS epidemic (2006)

The Actuarial Society of South Africa, in collaboration with the Centre for Actuarial Research and the Medical Research Council, has published the biennial report on the state of the South African HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS.

The report, titled “The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National and Provincial Indicators for 2006”, is the first publication of the results of the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model, which was released in November of 2005. The model, which is freely available, uses demographic and epidemiological data to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and in each of the country’s nine provinces.

The following information is available here:

doc Actuarial Report Press Release (38.00 Kb)

pdf Actuarial Report (2006) (519.90 Kb)

Global Health Facts

The Kaiser Foundation compiles statistics on diseases in many countries around the world.

Statistics is available on the following diseases:

  • People living with HIV/AIDS
  • Adult HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rate
  • New TB Cases
  • People living with TB
  • Malaria Cases
  • Malaria Deaths
  • Population

Click here to access the Global Health Facts website:

Click here to access statistics on diseases in South Africa:


Metropolitan Life’s Live the Future Scenario Project – 2006

Metropolitan’s Live the Future project attempts to build a vision of the future with its scenario planning model for HIV/AIDS interventions.

After commissioning research by Cadre to inform the scenario exercise, the project identifies four scenarios for the country’s social and economic health against the backdrop of HIV/AIDS and points to the urgency of a national private sector strategy in tackling the epidemic.

The project aims to: create a common understanding of what drives the HIV/AIDS epidemic, create a vision of success to galvanise people from across sectors into action; identify key areas of intervention to maximise and streamline activities; and influence policy at various levels.

The four “seasonal” scenarios – autumn, winter, spring and summer – reflect various levels of economic growth and social cohesion and offer a useful tool for creating the future. Although not even the most hopeful scenario predicts a cure for HIV/AIDS, our interventions can shape the future.

  • Winter (of discontent) sees low economic growth and social cohesion weak leadership, few partnerships, a focus on blame and stigma, no behaviour change, corrupt systems and bogus treatments – elements discernable in our current situation.
  • Autumn (of limited opportunity) sees low social cohesion and high economic growth, corruption, exclusive partnerships and little behavioural change.
  • Spring (a time of hope), characterised by high social cohesion but limited economic growth: a welfare-state-type scenario where hope and idealism are fettered by an ailing economy.
  • Summer (for all people) sees high economic growth and social cohesion, where strong collaborative leadership around HIV/AIDS exists, large-scale public/private partnerships are formed, labour is more skilled, educational levels are higher and life expectancy increases. Investment is vibrant and there is greater equality in the market.

For more information on the project click here to visit the Live The Future website:

Download the document: pdf Metropolitan Scenarios 951.24 Kb

Bureau for Economic Research: The macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under alternative intervention scenarios (with specific reference to ART)

In this report the results of a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDS on the Sourth African economy during the period 2000 to 2020 are presented.

Click here to access the full report on the BER website: