This is the key question that Metropolitan’s Live the Future project attempts to answer with its scenario planning model for HIV/AIDS interventions. After commissioning research by Cadre to inform the scenario exercise, the project identifies four scenarios for the country’s social and economic health against the backdrop of HIV/AIDS and points to the urgency of a national private sector strategy in tackling the epidemic. The Life the Future project aims to: create a common understanding of what drives the HIV/AIDS epidemic, create a vision of success to galvanise people from across sectors into action; identify key areas of intervention to maximise and streamline activities; and influence policy at various levels.

The four “seasonal” scenarios – autumn, winter, spring and summer – reflect various levels of economic growth and social cohesion and offer a useful tool for creating the future. Although not even the most hopeful scenario predicts a cure for HIV/AIDS, our interventions can shape the future.

• Winter (of discontent) sees low economic growth and social cohesion weak leadership, few partnerships, a focus on blame and stigma, no behaviour change, corrupt systems and bogus treatments – elements discernable in our current situation.

• Autumn (of limited opportunity) sees low social cohesion and high economic growth, corruption, exclusive partnerships and little behavioural change.

• Spring (a time of hope), characterised by high social cohesion but limited economic growth: a welfare-state-type scenario where hope and idealism are fettered by an ailing economy.

• Summer (for all people) sees high economic growth and social cohesion, where strong collaborative leadership around HIV/AIDS exists, large-scale public/private partnerships are formed, labour is more skilled, educational levels are higher and life expectancy increases. Investment is vibrant and there is greater equality in the market.

For more information on the project click here .